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Researchers at the HSE Faculty of Economic Sciences examined the level of effort that professional football players are willing to exert during a match in absence of financial incentives. It appears that the primary factors driving players to strive harder for victory are the strength of the opponent and the significance of the match for the club. This is particularly noticeable in derby matches between teams from the same city, such as the Moscow derby between CSKA and Spartak on April 25, 2024. The study has been published in the Journal of the New Economic Association.
The outcome of a football match depends on the talent of the players, their teamwork, the team's morale, and the tactics chosen by the coach. Additionally, an important indicator reflecting the players' determination to win the match is the distance they cover while running. Certainly, many may have observed that the highly prolific striker Lionel Messi covers relatively little ground on the field. However, players in other positions may exhibit much greater agility. Therefore, economists assess the total distance covered by the entire team per match, operating under the principle of 'other things being equal,' which is not possible at the level of individual observations. Research reveals that the total running distance significantly impacts the team's winning probability.
It would appear that in order to encourage players to run more during a match, financial incentives should be applied. Football clubs spend tens of millions, and for star players, hundreds of millions of euros each year on player acquisitions and salaries. However, research indicates that the value of a player is not always accurately determined. Typically, when calculating the fee, factors such as the player's athletic talent, leadership qualities, and teamwork abilities are considered. However, the market tends to undervalue aspects such as players' running distance.
It appears that distance covered is important for potential victory, yet it is not factored into fee assignments. This suggests that financial incentives are not the primary consideration for players when choosing their level of effort in matches. If this is indeed the case, then non-financial motivations may be influencing their decisions. For instance, players who share the values of their club and its fans may exert more effort in matches of greater significance.
To answer the question about player motivations in the field beyond financial incentives, researchers at the HSE Faculty of Economic Sciences analysed data on 1,377 matches from several seasons of the German Bundesliga.
In order to assess the efforts exerted by the players, the authors constructed a model comparing the distances run by players in regular matches with those in matches of critical importance for the club and its fans. The analysis revealed that in the latter scenario, players are capable of exerting greater effort. The researchers discovered a significant effect in derby matches, where two teams from the same city compete; these matches are often filled with more intense game moments.
Derby matches represent one form of rivalry between teams situated in close geographical proximity and having a long history of confrontation. While such games draw heightened attention from the audience, they are no different from other matches in terms of the teams' standings. Therefore, by examining such games as an example, one can observe the non-financial motivations of the players.
The authors applied least squares regression analysis and fixed-effect models to assess the impact of derby matches on the total distance covered by the team during a match, revealing a consistent and significant effect.
When playing against a long-standing rival, all else being equal, teams tend to be more active. Furthermore, a team playing in their home stadium typically covers approximately 10% more ground.
However, the derby effect does not notably impact the visiting team, leading to the conclusion that players exert extra efforts only when playing in front of their home audience. According to the researchers, this also accounts for the prevalence of defensive tactics, which also require less movement of players on the field, among the visiting team.
The study findings suggest that players strategically adjust their level of effort in matches based on factors such as the strength of the opponent and the significance of the match for the team, including its status as a derby and its importance to the fans. The researchers suggest that establishing a direct link between payment and the level of effort could enhance players' motivation to assume optimal positions and cover more ground on the field, potentially boosting team effectiveness as a result.
IQ
Inna Zaitseva
Research Fellow, Faculty of Economic Sciences, HSE University