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The Roland Garros tennis tournament, one of the most prestigious in the world, began on May 26. The prize money for this year's French Open totals nearly 54 million euros, with athletes competing in both singles and doubles events. In doubles tennis, choosing the right strategy for a match is crucial. Athletes' ability to adapt to the dynamics of the match and strategically choose the server can earn the pair up to 5% more points, according to Nikolai Avkhimovich, doctoral student and research fellow at the Laboratory of Sports Studies of the HSE Faculty of Economic Sciences. A paper with the study findings has been published in Applied Economics.
In tennis, a match starts with a coin toss, after which the pair that wins the toss decides who will serve first. A match consists of a sequence of sets, which, in turn, consist of games. During a game, the same player in one pair serves, and once the game concludes, the serve switches to the opposing pair.
Rotation also takes place within each pair: in the next game, a different player in the pair must serve. The athletes themselves choose the server in the pair for the first game, and rotation continues until the end of the set. Players in pairs also have the option of changing the standard order of serving during the match. Sometimes, this can alter the course of the match.
Thus, in the men's doubles final at the 2023 US Open, Rajeev Ram, a multiple Grand Slam winner and former world number one in doubles, served when the score was 5:3 in the second set. As a result, he secured a 6:3 victory in the set. After losing the first game of the third set on the opponent's serve (0:1), Ram returned to serve in the second game and won it as well. How is the first server in a pair selected at the beginning of the match, and how do athletes decide whether to change the standard sequence of serves between sets during the match?
The study author identified the factors that influence the strategic choice of server in a pair at the beginning of the match and how athletes adapt their serving strategy in subsequent sets. The author analysed data from more than 650 doubles matches at Wimbledon and US Open from 2019 to 2022. Additionally, to assess the strength of each athlete in doubles, data from thousands of singles matches played by the same athletes was collected.
Calculations have shown that better historical serving performance in singles matches increases the likelihood of being chosen as the first server in doubles matches. Also significant was the average number of aces per game, ie serves that the opponent could not return. The more aces an athlete hits, the higher the probability of being selected as the first server in a pair.
A higher average number of double faults, where a player misses both the first and second serves, reduces the chances of being chosen as the first server. At the same time, many characteristics of tennis players proved to be insignificant, such as the percentage of points won on the second serves and the percentage of correctly made first serves. The age, experience, and singles ranking of a player also have no effect on the choice of the first server in a pair.
Furthermore, the study demonstrates that tennis players adapt to the match dynamics by strategically deciding to change the server between sets. Poorer serving performance in the previous set increases the likelihood of being replaced as the first server by the teammate in the following set. Only individual indicators of a player's success proved to be significant—specifically, the percentage of points won on their serve. In contrast, the outcome of a set—whether the pair won or lost—or the total number of games won by the pair in the set, were not significant factors in the decision to replace the first server in a pair between sets.
Employing effective strategies for selecting servers and making decisions about their replacement can lead to improved outcomes in the match. Thus, pairs where the player with a stronger serving performance in previous singles matches is chosen as the first server can win up to 5% more points in the match. Subsequently, depending on the match's progression, a decision may be made to replace the first server in a pair: if a player performed worse than their partner in the first set, replacing them can potentially yield up to 2% additional points. Conversely, if the first server performed strongly, replacing them could lead to a 5% decrease in points for the pair.
These findings are not only significant for evaluating athletes’ performance after the match but could also impact the athletes’ strategic choices during the game and increase chances to win. Recent changes to the rules of major tennis associations now permit limited coaching, such as gestures and brief verbal instructions, during matches. A coach has a more comprehensive view of the match and can observe the situation on the court more accurately. They can advise the players to change the server, as the players themselves do not always have the opportunity to evaluate their individual performance during a match.
IQ
Nikolai Avkhimovich
Author of the study, Doctoral Student and Research Fellow, Laboratory of Sports Studies, Faculty of Economic Sciences, HSE University