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Публикации

Age-specific net migration patterns in the municipal formations of Russia

This paper analyses the spatial patterns of internal migration in Russia using data on net migration gain/loss in 2200 municipal formations (MFs) in Russia for the 2012–2013 period. These MFs are grouped into age categories that correspond with different life-course stages. We define 16 classes of MFs with similar migration balance patterns for multiple age groups and characterize the most typical classes. The results of our analysis show that age-specific migration patterns are determined by the spatial characteristics of MFs—in particular, a municipality’s localization in the centreperiphery system and the advantages of the geographic location (e.g., resort area, natural resources). We find that a city’s population size and administrative status are also important migration factors. In addition, we reveal differences in inter-regional and intra-regional migration and define their structural characteristics. An analysis of age-specific net migration contributes to our understanding of internal migration factors and allows us to assess the impact of migration on a municipality’s age structure. In large cities and regional centres, migration results in younger populations, while in peripheral areas, it speeds up population ageing. In most of the MFs that we analysed, the migration of youth and adults ‘moves’ in opposite directions. This factor accelerates the impact of migration on the population age structure in areas of destination and origin and significantly influences a municipality’s current and prospective demographic parameters as well as the population’s patterns of settlement and spatial concentration or de-concentration both nationally and regionally.

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GeoJournal. 2017.

Low Carbon Growth in the Northeast Asian Economies: Mirage or Reality?

The Paris Climate Agreement established a new target of combating global warming "well below 2 degrees Celsius". This goal will lead to the transformation and deep decarbonization of world economy aiming at nearly zero carbon emissions soon after 2050. The Northeastern Asian countries (responsible for 40% of global CO2 emissions) have all rechnological, resource and ivnestment potential for decarbonization both domestically and internationally, and can show leadership in this efforts on global scale.

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Safonov G., Enkhbayar S.
Iss. 1701e. Niigata: ERINA, 2017.

Внутренняя долговременная миграция населения: отличия России от других стран

В статье ставится под сомнение тезис о низкой миграционной активности населения России во внутристрановых переселениях в сравнении с зарубежными странами. Анализируются причины, которые препятствуют прямому сравнению данных по внутренней миграции в России и других странах. В основном они связаны с различиями в размерах единиц административно-территориального деления и неодинаковостью в подходах к определению внутристрановой миграции. На основе данных о миграции в 2013-2014 гг. в России и ряде стран с развитой миграционной статистикой делается вывод, что различия наличествуют, Россия отстает от стран-лидеров примерно вдвое, но ряд  стран, прежде всего – восточной и южной Европы – она превосходит по показателю интенсивности миграции.

Анализ  потоков внутренней миграции по возрасту показывает, что в целом у России и развитых стран наблюдается сходство возрастных профилей миграции. Однако в России пик в возрасте 15-29 лет, в отличие от других сравниваемых стран, выражен более сильно и смещен к наиболее молодым возрастам. Это связано с большей сжатостью в жизненном пути социально-демографических событий, которые ведут к миграционным перемещениям. В остальных возрастах отличия возрастного профиля миграции в России от других стран, против наших ожиданий, невелики.

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Вестник Московского университета. Серия 5: География. 2017. № 2.

Роль миграции в формировании населения Крыма в постсоветское время

Статья посвящена миграционному развитию Крыма в постсоветское время. Проведенный анализ данных переписей населения позволил проследить изменения в миграционных процессах полуострова. Для Крыма характерен миграционный обмен с соседними регионами Украины и России, а также их столицами. Насильственные депортации в годы ВОВ вызвали последующее возвращение на полуостров репрессированных и их потомков из Узбекистана и Казахстана. Если говорить в целом, то роль миграции в формировании населения региона с течением времени снижается, растет доля уроженцев самого Крыма. При этом возможен непродолжительный всплеск миграций, связанный с вхождением полуострова в состав России. Тем не менее, официальные прогнозы миграции, размещенные на сайтах статистических ведомств регионов, представляются завышенными. Среди мигрантов растет доля старожилов – тех, кто достаточно долго живет в месте вселения и имеет наименьшую вероятность дальнейшей миграции. 

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Вестник Российского университета дружбы народов. Серия: Социология. 2017. № 1.

2050 low-emission pathways: domestic benefits and methodological insights – Lessons from the DDPP

The piblication provides the key lessons learnt from DDPP project experience on designing long-term pathways of low carbon development for 16 world largest economies. The Paris Climate Agreement requires countries to build their concrete vision of the national low-emission transition, consistent with global climate goals that would widely shared by domestic stakeholders and explicitly articulated with domestic socio-economic priorities. We analyze the experience of USA, France, Germany, Russia, China, India, Indonesia, Japan, UK, Mexico, Canada, Italy, Brazil in projecting the deep decarbonization scenarios for their economies by 2050.

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Safonov G., Waisman H., Spencer T. et al.
Iss. 15/16. P.: IDDRI, 2016.

An Analysis of the Spring-to-Summer Transition in the West Central Plains for Application to Long Range Forecasting

The spring-to-summer transition is of special importance in long range forecasting, as the general circulation transitions to a less energetic regime. This affects the Midwestern United States in a profound way, since agriculture is very sensitive to the variability of weather and climate. Beginning at the local scale, surface temperature observations are used from a representative station in the West Central Missouri Plains region in order to identify the shift from late spring to early summer. Using upper-air re-analyses as a supplement, the 500-mb height observations are examined to find a spring-to-summer transition date by tracking the location of a representative contour. Each of these is used to identify spring-to-summer transition date and then statistical analysis is performed on this long-term data set. Finally, teleconnections, specifically the influence of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and blocking are examined in order to quantify interannual variability. It was found that examining these criteria, developed in an earlier study that covered a much shorter time period, produced similar statistics to this 68-year study of spring-to-summer transitions. It was also found that the onset of La Niña was associated with hotter summers in the region, a result first found in the earlier study, but this association in much stronger here.

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Newberry R., Lupo A., Jensen A. et al.
Atmospheric and Climate Science. 2016. No. 6. P. 375-393.
8 февраля 2016

Archival research reveals the true date of birth of the father of locust phase theory, Sir Boris Uvarov, F.R.S.

Ранее публиковавшиеся биографические очерки о создателе теории фаз саранчи сэре Борисе Уварове, сэре Борисе Уварове, рыцаре-командоре ордена св. Михаила и св. Георгия и члене Лондонского королевского общества (1886 [sic] — 1970) были основаны главным образом на личных воспоминаниях его друзей и коллег, записанных в 1970 году или позднее. Архивные исследования обнаруживают подлинную дату его рождения и позволяют уточнить некоторые другие важные факты и даты его ранней биографии.

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Fedotova A. A., Kouprianov A. V.
Евразиатский энтомологический журнал. 2016. Vol. 15. No. 4. P. 321-327.
5 сентября 2016

Biologie et médecine en France et en Russie. Histoires croisées (fin XVIIIe-XXe siècle) / Biology and medicine in France and Russia. Entangled histories (late 18th – 20th century)

Les interactions franco-russes restent peu étudiées dans le domaine des sciences du vivant. Un moment ralenties par la révolution de 1917 et surtout la période stalinienne, les relations scientifiques entre la France et la Russie n’ont pourtant jamais réellement cessé. Contrairement à une idée reçue, même pendant la Guerre froide, les échanges furent presque ininterrompus. 

Chacune des contributions russes et françaises du présent ouvrage constitue une étude de cas mettant en avant des scientifiques français ou russes qui ont incarné ces relations. Il ne s’agit pas d’user d’une démarche comparatiste, à la recherche de similitudes et de différences qui figeraient chaque aire culturelle dans son identité, mais plutôt de rendre compte de croisements, d’imbrications constitutives complexes. L’ouvrage est divisé en deux sections respectant les deux sensibilités traditionnelles des sciences de la vie, entre histoire naturelle et médecine, et suit pour chacune d’entre elles une progression chronologique de la fin du XVIIIe siècle à l’époque soviétique.

 

 

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P.: Hermann, 2016.

Changing Climate: What The Paris Accord Means For Russia

In December 2015, nearly 200 countries reached a historic agreement in Paris to limit greenhouse gas emissions in hopes of curbing global warming. Law360's Expert Analysis special series looks at the impact the agreement will have on policies in various regions and countries.

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Law360's Expert Analysis special series. 2016.

City as a geopolitics: Tbilisi, Georgia — A globalizing metropolis in a turbulent region

Tbilisi, a city of over a million, is the national capital of Georgia. Although little explored in urban studies, the city epitomizes a fascinating assemblage of processes that can illuminate the interplay of geopolitics, political choices, globalization discourses, histories, and urban contestations in shaping urban transformations. Tbilisi's strategic location in the South Caucasus, at the juncture of major historical empires and religions in Eurasia, has ensured its turbulent history and a polyphony of cultural influences. Following Georgia's independence in 1991, Tbilisi found itself as the pivot of Georgian nation-building. Transition to a market economy also exposed the city to economic hardship, ethnical homogenization, and the informalization of the urban environment. The economic recovery since the early 2000s has activated urban regeneration. Georgia's government has recently promoted flagship urban development projects in pursuit of making Tbilisi as a modern globalizing metropolis. This has brought contradictions, such as undermining the city's heritage, contributing to socio-spatial polarization, and deteriorating the city's public spaces. The elitist processes of decision-making and a lack of a consistent urban policy and planning regimes are argued to be among major impediments for a more sustainable development of this city.

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Salukvadze J., Golubchikov O.
Cities. 2016. Vol. 52. P. 39-54.

Climate change and Deep Decarbonization of the Economies in Northeast Asia: Challenges and Opportunities

A comprehensive review of the climate change mitigation and low carbon development issues in the Northeast Asia, including Russia, China, Japan, Mongolia, Republic of Korea and DPR of Korea. The countries face an outstanding challenge of using their huge reserves of fossil fuels while committing to prevent global warming by over 2 degree Celsius. Their resources of renewable energy, technological potential and investment resources can help to deeply decarbonize their economies by 2050, and the international cooperation projects in the region can speed up this process.

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ERINA Business News. 2016. No. 117. P. 33-40.

Evidence of temperature and precipitation change over the past 100 years in a high-resolution pollen record from the boreal forest of Central European Russia

Near-annual pollen records for the last 100 years were obtained from a 65-cm peat monolith from a raised peat bog in the Central Forest State Natural Biosphere Reserve (southern part of the Valdai Hills, European Russia) and compared with the available long-term meteorological observations. An age–depth model for the peat monolith was constructed by 210Pb and 137Cs dating. Cross-correlation and the Granger causality analysis indicated a broad range of statistically significant correlations between the pollen accumulation rate (PAR) of the main forest-forming trees and shrubs (Picea, Pinus, Betula, Tilia, Quercus, Ulmus, Alnus, and Corylus) and the air temperature and precipitation during the previous 3 years. Results showed that high air temperatures during the growing season (May–September) in the year prior to the flowering led to an increase in pollen productivity of the main tree species. The statistically significant correlation between the PAR of trees and shrubs and winter precipitation of the current and previous years could reflect the influence of winter precipitation on soil water availability and as a result on tree growth and functioning in the spring.

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Olchev A., Novenko E., Viktor Popov et al.
The Holocene. 2016. P. 1-12.
15 февраля 2017