• A
  • A
  • A
  • АБB
  • АБB
  • АБB
  • А
  • А
  • А
  • А
  • А
Обычная версия сайта
vision

Публикации

The Impact of WTO Membership: A Comparative Analysis of China, Russia and Ukraine

Комплексный анализ социально-экономических последствий вступления Китая, Украины и России в ВТО по различным отраслям экономики позволил выработать рекомендации для наиболее успешной адаптации России к нормам ВТО. Акцент сделан на опыте Китая. Практика его участия в ВТО крайне полезна для России с позиций позитивного влияния  на развитие экономики страны, когда с одной стороны, идет расширение промышленного и производственного секторов экономики, продвижение товаров на мировых рынках, а с другой, есть возможность использовать правовые инструменты ВТО для защиты национального внутреннего рынка.

Положительный опыт участия в ВТО Китая несколько контрастирует с приведенным опытом Украины. Оценка многовекторной  политики Украины и ее ассоциирование с ЕС позволила сделать вывод о невозможности этой страны идти одновременно по пути и евразийской  и европейской интеграции. 

Обострившееся в последнее время торгово-экономическое и политическое противоборство России с американскими и европейскими партнерами подталкивает к кардинальному изменению государственной экономической стратегии. Определить направления таких трансформаций поможет постижение как положительного, так и отрицательного опыта продвижения в мировое экономическое пространство давних торговых партнеров России – Китая и Украины. 

… 
Routledge, Taylor & Francis Group, 2018.

Agenda-Setting in Russian Media

The purpose of this study is to test the agenda-setting theory, according to which the media has a significant impact on what people consider to be important events. We compare the results of the Levada Center surveys on the most memorable events of the month with the number of publications on these issues in the press. We focused on the period from January 2014 to December 2016. A total of 884 events were analyzed in the article. The results of the study confirm the impact of discussions in the media on people's attention to the problem. The results also show that the discussions in the media one week before the date of polling are more important than the issues covered over the entire month. People better remember those events which took place shortly before the polling, as well as the events the discussion of which intensified during this period. It is also important to note the role of regional publications in the sensitization of the public to various issues. The issues covered by the national newspapers and news agencies, but ignored by the regional press, are much worse remembered by the population. The results of the study are controlled for background of the discussion: the presence of important events in each relevant month, which monopolized the public attention, is taken into account. … 
Political Science. PS. Высшая школа экономики, 2017. No. WP BRP 49/PS/2017.

A History for the Centenary of the Russian Revolution (Review of Russia in Revolution: An Empire in Crisis, 1890 to 1928 by S. A. Smith)

This review essay focuses on the new monograph by S. A. Smith Russia in Revolution: An Empire in Crisis, 1890 to 1928 (Oxford, Oxford University Press, 2017). As a leading expert in the social history of the Russian Revolution of 1917, Smith provides a comprehensive political, social, and cultural narrative of one of the central events in the global history of the twentieth century. Directed at a general readership, the book offers an excellent overview of existing Russian and Western scholarship, outlines the main course of events, introduces most important actors, and contains thought-provoking conclusions about the revolution. As seen from the title, Smith takes a longish view on the political rupture and includes a comprehensive analysis of social and political life of the Russian Empire, a brief overview of the First Russian Revolution (1905–1907) and the economic and political crisis of the First World War (1914–1918) before discussing the Russian Revolution of 1917, the Russian Civil War, and the period of the New Economic Policy (NEP). The book’s conclusion is a comprehensive essay attempting to comprehend the revolution and its consequences as a whole. As a nuanced social, political, and cultural history, Russia in Revolution: An Empire in Crisis, 1890 to 1928 outlines the Revolution of 1917 as a tectonic shift which cannot be reduced to a simple change of the elites in the Russian imperial formation. Smith’s brilliant work will be invaluable for the students of history, both in Russia and abroad, and all those who are interested in global history in general and the Russian Revolution in particular.

… 
Sablin I.
Вестник Санкт-Петербургского университета. Серия 2. История. 2017. Vol. 62. No. 3. P. 638-644.

Autonomy and Decentralization in the Global Imperial Crisis: The Russian Empire and the Soviet Union in 1905–1924

There is a paradox in the aftermath of the global imperial crisis in the region of Eastern Europe and Eurasia. The Habsburg Empire which had been thought about as the katechon of future world of federalism broke into nation-states with regimes of accommodation and repression of national minorities. The Russian Empire which had been thought about as the future centralized nation-state transformed into a federation with layered forms of autonomy and decentralization. The exploration of this paradox begins with the critique of the image of the Russian Empire as a centralized and centralizing state and exploration of inclusive and differentiated governance and ways in which this political formation was reflected in political discourses of reformist and oppositional movements which in one way or another imagined the post-imperial order. The paper then traces the constitutional debates in the revolutionary contexts of 1905 and 1917 and assesses how these debates reflected local and global discourses of imagining the post-imperial order and how they were incorporated into the constitutions adopted on the territory of the former Russian Empire. The global imperial crisis which brought down the Qing, Russian, Ottoman, German and Habsburg empires stimulated imagination of post-imperial order not only in the named contexts, but also in the British, French and other cases. The circulation and synthesis of ideas fostered by the miscellany of the crumbling empires and the diversity within each of them produced a great variety of imaginations. The non-Soviet constitutional projects of 1917–1921 and the Soviet constitutions of 1918 and 1924 incorporated the experience of the Russian Empire and other imperial and post-imperial formations. The Constitution of the Far Eastern Republic, for instance, borrowed the concept of non-territorial autonomy from the Ukrainian Constitution of 1918, while the ineffectiveness of the formal right to territorial autonomy resembled that in the Czechoslovak Constitution of 1920. The multilateral transfers and borrowings, both from the Russian imperial and other contexts, resulted in the departure of the 1924 Constitution of the Soviet Union from the initial Bolshevik plans. Instead of establishing a non-national class-centered formation, it became a mere preamble to a multinational confederation to be developed by its sovereign participants, which included two federations.

… 
Sablin I., Semyonov A.
Modern Intellectual History. 2017.
6 декабря 2016

Biopolitics, Borders, and Refugee Camps: Exercising Sovereign Power Over Nonmembers of the State

This article addresses the relationship between the concepts of national identity and biopolitics by examining a border-transit camp for repatriates, refugees and asylum seekers in Germany. Current studies of detention spaces for migrants have drawn heavily on Agamben’s reflection on the “camp” and “homo-sacer”, where the camp is analyzed as a space in permanent state of exception, in which the government exercises sovereign power over the refugee as the ultimate biopolitical subject. But what groups of people can end up at a camp, and does the government treat all groups in the same way? This article examines the German camp for repatriates, refugees and asylum seekers as a space where the state’s borders are demarcated and controlled through practices of bureaucratic and narrative differentiation between various groups of people. The author uses the concept of detention space to draw a theoretical link between national identity and biopolitics, and demonstrates how the sovereign’s practices of control and differentiation at the camp construct German national identity through defining “nonmembers” of the state. The study draws on ethnographic fieldwork at the German border transit camp Friedland and on a discourse analysis of texts produced at the camp or for the camp.

… 
Nationalities Papers: The Journal of Nationalism and Ethnicity. 2017. Vol. 45. No. 1. P. 41-60.

Capital Cities: Varieties and Patterns of Development and Relocation

The issue of capital city relocation is a topic of debate for more than forty countries around the world. In this first book to discuss the issue, Vadim Rossman offers an in-depth analysis of the subject, highlighting the global trends and the key factors that motivate different countries to consider such projects, analyzing the outcomes and drawing lessons from recent capital city transfers worldwide for governments and policy-makers.

… 
L.; NY: Routledge/Taylor & Francis, 2017.

Chiefdoms: Yesterday and Today

What many anthropologists regard as the major step in political development occurred when, for the first time in history, previously autonomous villages gave up their individual sovereignties and were brought together into a multi-village political unit--the chiefdom. Though long neglected as a major stage in history, recent years have seen the chiefdom come in for increased attention. As its importance has been more fully recognized, it has become the object of serious scholarly analysis and interpretation. In this volume specialists in political evolution draw on data from ethnography, archaeology, and history and apply fresh insights to enhance the study of the chiefdom. The papers present penetrating analyses of many aspects of the chiefdom, from how this form of political organization first arose to the role it played in giving rise to the next major stage in the development of human society - the state.

… 
Carneiro R. L., Grinin L. E., Korotayev A. et al.
NY: Eliot Werner Publications Incorporated, 2017.

Collective Learning and Regime Dynamics under Uncertainty: Labour Reform and the Way to Autocracy in Russia

The article questions the structural approach to autocratic transition that sees government as knowingly and purposely building autocracy, and contributes to the tradition emphasizing the plurality of possible regime developments and the role of contingency therein, by providing a more systematic treatment of such contingency. We offer a path-dependent theory of political change and use insights from cognitive institutionalism to show how ad hoc policy reform practices become accepted as a trusted way of interaction by political actors and how they “learn” their way into autocracy. This intuition is substantiated with a case-study of the labour reform in Putin’s Russia. The early 2000s marked a surge in uncertainty in Russian politics caused by the succession crisis and the profound political turnover it triggered. This uncertainty could have resolved in a number of ways, each leading to a different political development. We trace the actual way out of this uncertainty and show that the major factor to condition further regime trajectory was the way social reforms were conducted. The course of these reforms determined the ruling coalition and the institutions that ensure credible commitment within its ranks (the dominant party), and contributed to crowding out the political market and opposition decay.

… 
Democratization. 2017. Vol. 24. No. 3. P. 481-497.
2 сентября 2016

Coverage of Three Tragedies in the Russian Media: Application of the Network Agenda Model

December 19, 2016, saw three tragedies simultaneously, that could not go unnoticed by the Russian media: dozens of people died as a result of a surrogate alcohol poisoning in Irkutsk, a Russian ambassador was killed in Turkey, and a terrorist attack took place at the Christmas market in Berlin. In this article using the network agenda theory we analyze how these tragedies were covered by various types of mass media: on 11 federal TV channels, in 1,974 print newspapers, in 34,905 online newspapers and 2,574 blogs. We believe that direct and indirect control of the agenda by the state can be exercised by creating a network of events that will canalize correctly discussions about tragedies. We showed that ties between the tragedy and a network of other acute issues are more important than objective circumstances, such as the number of victims or a geography of the event. The context in which the events were looked at led to greater attention to the killing of the ambassador and less attention to surrogate alcohol poisoning. The Russian mass media paid significantly less attention to the Berlin terror attack, it yet was used as a supplement to the demonstration of importance of the fight against terrorism. … 
Political Science. PS. Высшая школа экономики, 2017. No. WP BRP 48/PS/2017.

Curriculum vitae: Religious and Social Life in the Russian Regions (Review of Religious and Social Life in the Russian Regions, Vol. 1, 2)

Review of Religious and Social Life in the Russian Regions, Vol. 1, 2.

… 
State, Religion and Church. 2017. Vol. 4 (1). P. 112-125.

Democracy in the Russian Far East during the Revolution of 1905–1907

The First Russian Revolution demonstrated that there was considerable interest in democracy in the Transbaikal, Amur, and Maritime Regions in 1905–1907, which was widely shared across the empire and in East Asia. Democracy was understood as economic welfare, social justice, civil liberties, popular representation, decentralization, and national self-determination. Like elsewhere in the empire, protests started with economic demands, but many trade and professional political unions, strike committees, and soviets developed political programs. In Vladivostok, unrests among soldiers and sailors erupted into major riots with numerous casualties in October 1905, despite the attempts of Military Doctor Mikhail Aleksandrovich Kudrzhinskii and other intellectuals to make the movement peaceful. In Blagoveshchensk, the Amur Cossack teacher Mikhail Nikitich Astaf’ev joined a group of intellectuals who attempted to turn the municipal duma into a provisional government. In Nikolsk-Ussuriysky, Doctor Nikolai Vasil’evich Kirilov presided over the founding congress of the Ussuri Peasant Union, which discussed the introduction of rural revolutionary self-government. In Chita, Social Democrats under Anton Antonovich Kostiushko-Voliuzhanich took over much of the Transbaikal Railway. Tsyben Zhamtsarano and other Buryat intellectuals assembled for congresses demanding indigenous self-government. The recognition of these territories as the Russian Far East had already begun, but the loosely united Transbaikal, Maritime, and Amur Regions remained part of Siberia or North Asia for contemporary observers. The unity of Siberia from the Urals to the Pacific was reinforced by Siberian Regionalism which attracted the support of regional liberals and moderate socialists and consolidated through joint activities of Siberian deputies.

… 
Sablin I.
Russian History. 2017. Vol. 44. No. 2-3. P. 449-475.

Economic Development and Sociopolitical Destabilization: a Re-analysis

Наши эмпирические тесты в общем и целом подтверждают обоснованность гипотезы Олсона – Хантингтона о наличии криволинейной перевернутой U-образной зависимости между уровнем экономического развития и уровнем социально-политической нестабильности. Согласно этой гипотезе, вплоть до определенного значения величины средних подушевых доходов экономический рост усиливает риски социально-политической дестабилизации и лишь при его относительно высоких значениях дальнейший рост этого показателя ведет к уменьшению таких рисков. Таким образом, для более высоких значений подушевого дохода характерна отрицательная корреляция между доходами на душу населения и рисками социально-политической дестабилизации, а для более низких – положительная. В результате, максимальные значения по показателям политической нестабильности наблюдаются, как правило, для стран со средними значениями подушевого ВВП, а не для самых бедных, или наоборот, самых богатых стран. Вместе с тем наш анализ показал, что для разных индексов социально-политической дестабилизации данная криволинейная зависимость имеет разный характер. При этом выяснилось и наличие одного очень важного исключения. Мы показали, что между подушевым ВВП и интенсивностью переворотов и попыток переворотов наблюдается не криволинейная, а явно выраженная отрицательная корреляция. При этом особенно сильно данный индекс коррелирует с логарифмом ВВП на душу населения. Данное обстоятельство делает вышеуказанную криволинейную зависимость применительно к интегральному индексу заметно менее выразительной и вносит очень заметный вклад в формирование ее асимметричности (когда отрицательная корреляция между подушевым ВВП и интегральным индексом социально-политической дестабилизации CNTS среди более богатых стран выглядит заметно более сильной, чем положительная корреляция для стран более бедных). Вместе с тем анализ продемонстрировал, что для всех остальных индексов социально-политической дестабилизации наблюдается именно постулируемая гипотезой Олсона—Хантингтона криволинейная перевернутая U-образная зависимость. Применительно к таким индексам, как политические забастовки, массовые беспорядки и антиправительственные демонстрации, мы имеем дело с асимметрией, прямо противоположной той, что упоминалась выше, — с такой асимметрией, когда положительная корреляция между ВВП и нестабильностью для более бедных стран оказывается заметно более сильной, чем отрицательная корреляция для более богатых стран. Особенно ярко выраженную асимметрию мы обнаружили для такого показателя социально-политической дестабилизации, как интенсивность антиправительственных демонстраций. … 
Korotayev A., Vaskin I. A., Билюга С. et al.
Political Science. PS. Высшая школа экономики, 2017. No. WP BRP 46/PS/2017.
6 июня 2017